Guessing GamesHow to forecast success.

Guessing GamesHow to forecast success.

Issue 29

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Arts & Culture

Political experts are terrible at predicting actual political outcomes. According to research done at the University of Pennsylvania, they are only marginally better at it than “dart-throwing chimps.” But what’s the alternative? According to Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, authors of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, we should look to the “super predictors”—ordinary people who they have identified through mass testing as performing four times better than average at anticipating major world events. The super predictors aren’t political insiders—one standout participant was a pharmacist—but what they do have in common is self-awareness and open-mindedness. It seems that sometimes the pros are so certain of where the ball will land that they neglect to wa...

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